How the cases reached the appeals court
Kalshi self-certified its sports-event contracts with the CFTC and began listing them, drawing scrutiny from state regulators who argue the products amount to sports betting. The Ohio Casino Control Commission and the Tennessee Sports Wagering Council moved to enforce their gambling laws, prompting Kalshi to seek injunctions in federal court. A lower court in Ohio denied that request while a Tennessee court granted it, setting up the conflicting rulings the appeals court resolved on Friday.
A widening split over prediction markets
The decision follows a Ninth Circuit ruling last month that Nevada can regulate Kalshi’s sports contracts as sports bets, creating a split between federal appeals courts that could push the dispute to the Supreme Court. It also lands as the broader prediction-market industry faces mounting legal pressure, from New York’s lawsuit against Polymarket over an unlicensed gambling operation to separate enforcement efforts in more than a dozen states.
What it means for Kalshi
Kalshi said it disagreed with the ruling and does not expect it to survive further review, arguing the decision shows why a state-by-state patchwork does not work. The company has continued to expand its institutional business, opening its prediction markets to institutions through a Cantor Fitzgerald integration, even as the sports contracts that drive much of its trading volume now face a patchwork of state rules rather than a single federal framework.