Morning Minute: Crypto Rips on Cool CPI

Morning Minute is a daily newsletter written by Tyler Warner. The analysis and opinions expressed are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of Decrypt. And check out our new daily news show covering all of the top stories in 5 minutes, downloadable on Apple Pod or Spotify.

GM!

Today’s top news:

• Crypto majors are up 3-6% after a cold CPI print; BTC at $64.6k
• HYPE jumps 7% to $68 as SEC Crypto Task Force meets with HPC team
• Mizuho downgrades Circle to $50 target, cites OpenUSD competition
• Pump.fun hits first major unlock as $86M in PUMP hits market (PUMP +15%)
• Robinhood Chain sees major rotation from memes to protocols

📈 Crypto Rips on Cool CPI, but Warsh Won’t Call It a Win

The soft inflation print crypto was waiting for finally landed.

June CPI fell 0.4% month over month, the biggest monthly decline since April 2020, dropping the annual rate to 3.5% from May’s 4.2% and coming in under the 3.8% expected. Core CPI cooled to 2.6%, below forecasts, and was flat on the month.

Crypto squeezed higher within minutes. Bitcoin jumped from around $62,000 to reclaim $64,900, ETH surged 7% to $1,884, and roughly $300 million in short positions were liquidated as bears got run over.

Notably, this was the last major inflation read before the Fed’s July 28-29 meeting, and it undercuts the rate-hike case that’s been capping the market all summer. The odds of a July rate cut fell from 35% on Polymarket to just 6% in the wake of CPI + Warsh’s commentary. Though odds of at least 1 hike are still ~80% by end of year (down from 90%).

Within hours of the CPI print, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh testified to Congress, his first appearance since taking over from Powell. The major takeaway from his testimony was his comment that if the Fed gets policy right, the inflation surge of the last five years “will be a thing of the past.” He leaned hard into the AI story too, calling business investment the most striking feature of the economy and predicting that what’s now called “AI investment” will soon just be called “investment,” a view that AI is fundamentally disinflationary.

That said, when asked directly about the morning’s CPI data, he pushed back on the optimism, saying some might look at it and declare “mission accomplished,” and then adding flatly, “that is not my view.” He gave no forward guidance, no signal on the next move, and reminded lawmakers the committee has “no tolerance” for elevated inflation. Some (myself included) may interpret that as a bit hawkish, and it does still feel like a rate hike may very well come in 2026.

Perhaps we will learn more at FOMC in 2 weeks. Until then, enjoy the pump…

🌎 Macro Crypto and Markets

• Crypto majors are very green after a cold CPI print; BTC +3% at $64.6k; ETH +5% at $1,880; SOL +3% at $77; HYPE +7% at $68
• PI (+15%), PUMP (+14%) and ZEC (+13%) led top movers
• Oil -1% at $80; Gold -1% at $4,035
• Stock futures are slightly green; DOW flat, Nasdaq +0.4%
• The SEC Crypto Task Force met with Hyperliquid’s Policy Center on Tuesday to discuss crypto regulation and how Hyperliquid fits in
• Several Senate Democrats came out against the CLARITY Act, calling it a “corrupt bill” at a press conference, escalating opposition over its failure to bar Trump and his family from profiting off crypto
• The CFTC moved to stop Kalshi from canceling trades as ordered by a Michigan court, siding with the prediction-market platform in a jurisdictional clash between the federal regulator and the state
• The US and UK moved to align rules for tokenized finance, linking the world’s two largest financial markets in a coordinated push to set shared standards as tokenization scales
• JPMorgan said Hyperliquid’s rise threatens Circle’s USDC economics, creating a “prisoner’s dilemma” that pits Circle and Coinbase against each other for distribution
• Mizuho downgraded Circle to underperform and cut its price target to $50 on the Open USD threat, warning the 140-backer consortium endangers USDC’s core reserve-yield economics
• Meanwhile, Circle signed an MOU with JCB, Japan’s largest card network, to explore stablecoin payments across roughly 40 million merchants
• Coinbase’s Head of Platform said that 95-100% of its code is now written by AI or AI-assisted

Corporate Treasuries & ETFs

• The Bitcoin ETFs saw $181M in net inflows on Tuesday; the ETH ETFs saw $58M in inflows
• Tom Lee’s Bitmine generated $45M from ETH staking in Q2 according to their latest filing

Meme Coin Tracker

• Meme leaders were mostly green up 2-3%; DOGE +2%, SHIB +3%, PEPE +2%, PENGU +7%, TRUMP +2%, BONK -3%
• Robinhood chain memes had a volatile day as previous leaders sold off with Cashcat -30%, Juggernaut -38% and Hoodrat -47%, while new launchpad PONS jumped 13x and new RWA protocol INDEX jumped 400%
• No notable action on Solana

📈 Myriad Market of the Day

💰 Token, Airdrop & Protocol Tracker

• Pump.fun completed its first major unlock at the 1-year mark, with $86M in team and investor PUMP tokens hitting the market
• Binance is betting on becoming a crypto “super-app” as stablecoins reshape its growth, expanding beyond trading into payments and financial services.

🚚 What is happening in NFTs?

• NFT leaders were mostly flat; Punks even at 32.4 ETH, BAYC +1% at 8.94 ETH, Pudgy +1% at 4.37 ETH; Hypurr’s -2% at 175 HYPE
• Cryptoadz (+22%) and Trolls (+26%) led top movers
• New Robinhood NFT sets jumped including RDEGEN Hood (+450%) and Post Mortem (+60%)