Morning Minute: Circle Earnings Highlight a Massive Day for Crypto

Morning Minute is a daily newsletter written by Tyler Warner. The analyzes and opinions expressed are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of Decrypt. Subscribe to the Morning Minute on Substack.

GM!

Today’s most important news:

• Crypto Majors Continue Rebound Rally, Up 4-6%; BTC at $68,200
• CRCL Shares Soar 35% After Posting a Big Q4 Amid Stablecoin Boom
• Mr. Beast employee is fined and suspended by Kalshi for insider trading
• Ethereum Foundation Publishes Updated Roadmap Highlighting Focus Through 2029
• Tether is investing $200 million in online mp Whop, enabling USDT payments on their platform

💵 Circle earnings mark a huge day for crypto

Circle crushed profits due to the stablecoin boom.

And the broader crypto market finally got a bid.

📌What happened

Circle reported its fourth quarter results yesterday morning and the numbers were incredible.

• USDC circulation reached $75.3 billion, up 72% year-over-year, almost doubling their own 40% expectation
• Transaction volume reached $11.9 trillion, up 247%
• Sales and reserve income were $770 million, up 77%
• Adjusted EBITDA increases 412%

CRCL closed 35% higher at $83.

That print was the starting signal for a broad crypto rally.

• BTC bounced back from the lows of $63,000 to almost $69,000, up 7% on the day
• ETH recovered $2,075, up 12%
• SOL rose 14% to $90

Total liquidations amounted to $463 million, of which $400 million+ came from short positions with over 100,000 traders.

Crypto stocks saw the love too, with Coinbase closing down 13% and Strategy up 9%.

🗣️ What they say

Jeremy Allaire on the earnings call: “Tens or hundreds of billions of AI agents will communicate with each other over the Internet and perform economic functions.”

Clear Street Analysts Will Decode: “The print reinforces the continued adoption of USDC despite a softer crypto backdrop.”

🧠Why it matters

Circle’s fourth quarter performance was tremendous and they are poised to continue.

Their $75 billion in USDC circulation, growing 72% while the broader crypto market is down more than 30% from highs, means stable currency adoption is being disconnected from crypto majors.

Dollars move on the chain regardless of whether BTC goes up or down.

And Circle is certainly in a prime position to benefit from future tailwinds from the likes of Meta’s planned stablecoin integration across Facebook, WhatsApp and Instagram.

Oh, and the GENIUS Act regulatory framework doesn’t start to take effect until November 2026. So this is just the beginning of the wave.

As for broader crypto, it’s hard to think the bear market is over yet.

But there are plenty of bottom signals. Things like the Jane Street lawsuit, MSTR being the most shorted stock, record time in Extreme Fear, and cyclical technicals like 23 months since the ATH breakout (historic bottom) all show that we are probably closer to the bottom than the top.

And NVDA’s earnings rise means the AI ​​rally and the broader stock market are likely in good shape for the foreseeable future (another headwind has been removed).

It’s an excellent setup for a crypto bounce. Now just wait and see if it comes…

🌎 Macrocrypto and markets

• Crypto majors are very green and continue the rebound rally; BTC +4% at $68.2K; ETH +7% at $2,070; SOL +5% at $88
• DCR (+15%), Stable (+14%), DOT (+13%) and AERO (+13%) were the leaders
• BTC rose 7% to nearly $69,000 after falling below $63,000 on Tuesday as whale buying and ETF inflows caused a $400 million short squeeze
• Circle (CRCL) rose 35% after huge fourth quarter results: USDC circulation $75.3 billion (+72%), transaction volume $11.9 billion (+247%), revenue $770 million (+77%)
• Nvidia posted record sales of $68.1 billion in the fourth quarter (+73%), guided Q1 to $78 billion and confirmed Vera Rubin sample shipments have begun (NVDA +3.5%)
• The Ethereum Foundation published its ‘strawmap’, a roadmap for public developers that focuses on seven protocol forks through 2029 with north stars, including 10K TPS via zkEVMs, best-in-class privacy and post-quantum cryptography
• The Dutch governmentt plans to impose a 36% tax on unrealized crypto profits, changing existing tax law to treat digital assets on a market value basis
• A British parliamentary committee proposed a temporary ban on crypto donations in politics, citing concerns about foreign influence and traceability issues
• An AI system discovered a critical bug in Nethermind’s Ethereum client, the latest win for AI-driven security audits
• Senator Richard Blumenthal opened a Senate investigation into Binance over alleged $1.7 billion in transfers to Iran-linked entities, including the Houthis

Corporate bonds and ETFs

Meme coin tracker

• Meme majors were very green next to majors; DOGE +4%, SHIB +1%, PEPE -2%, TRUMP +2%, PENGU +3%, SPX +6%, FARTCOIN +5%
• GORK (+469%) led top onchain movers; Pippkin (+20%), Griffain (+20%) and Pigeon (+70%) were other notable gainers

💰 Token, airdrop and protocol tracker

• Tether invested $200 million in online marketplace Whop at a valuation of $1.6 billion; Whop serves 18.4 million users with $3 billion in annual payouts, 25% MoM growth, and Tether’s WDK wallet kit enables USDT/USAT payments directly on the platform
• Kalshi a MrBeast video editor fined and suspended for insider trading in YouTube’s streaming markets, betting on what words MrBeast would say in videos he had pre-release access to; Kalshi’s first public enforcement action also hit a California political candidate who was betting on his own governorship
• Block fillings co-founder Nicholas Hammer stepped down as CEO as Susquehanna-backed cryptocurrency lender continues to freeze customer deposits and withdrawals after $75 million in losses
• The Hyperliquid team shared that 173k HYPE ($4.9 million) will be given to the team on March 6 for the March unlock
• SLIDE launched based with 1 GLDY token equal to 1 oz of physical gold, touted as the first institutional grade gold token with yield

🚚 What’s happening in NFTs?

• NFT Leaders were largely flat in ETH terms despite the ETH rally; Punks -1% at 29.3 ETH, Pudgy +1% at 4.47 ETH, BAYC +1% at 6.04 ETH; Hypurr’s +1% at 470 HYPE
• Memeland Captainz (+23%) and Fableborne Primoridals (+36%) were the leaders
• Pudgy penguins announced new Pengu claw machines are now at select Urban Air locations across the US