Bitcoin Hits Weekly High Over $69K on US-Iran Ceasefire Hopes as Oil Slides

Bitcoin and broader financial markets rose in early trading in Asia and London on Monday after reports emerged of possible ceasefire talks between the US and Iran.

The leading crypto hit a weekly high of $69,350 on Monday morning and is currently trading at $69,245, up 3.5% on the day according to CoinGecko data. Oil fell 1.4% from Friday’s close, while the Nikkei gained 0.85% and S&P 500 futures rose 0.64%. Safe-haven gold, on the other hand, hovered around breakeven.

The moves come on the heels of a Reuters report that the US, Iran and a group of regional mediators are discussing a possible 45-day ceasefire that could lead to a permanent end to the war.

Per ReutersPakistan has drawn up a potential framework for an end to hostilities and a ceasefire, with all elements expected to be agreed by Monday. The initial agreement would be structured as a memorandum of understanding finalized electronically through Pakistan, the only channel of communication in the talks.

The news follows a profanity-filled message from US President Donald Trump posted on TruthSocial Sunday, declaring that “Tuesday will be power plant day and bridge day, all in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the damn street, you crazy bastards, or you’ll live in hell – JUST WATCH!” before signing off: “Praise be to Allah.”

Short squeeze

“It was the negotiation reports from Iran, and not Trump’s comments, that contributed to Bitcoin’s price increase,” Ekko An, an analyst at Seoul-based Tiger Research, told me. Declutter.

The market has stopped taking Trump’s comments at face value because he has repeatedly made statements without any substantive coordination, the analyst explained. “As a result, the market now interprets price movements by combining its statements with signals of external action.”

More than $200 million in short cryptocurrency positions were liquidated within 24 hours – four times more than long positions – according to MintGlass data, indicating a textbook “short squeeze,” Derek Lim, head of research at crypto market maker Caladan, told me. Declutter. With market sentiment hovering in extreme fear, the market was ready for a reversal, he said.

A confluence of these factors, coupled with Morgan Stanley’s spot launch of the Bitcoin ETF on April 8, which undercut Blackrock IBIT’s 0.25% fee with a 0.14% expense ratio, also drove Bitcoin’s spike, he explained.

Despite the potential increase in risky investments, the Strait of Hormuz remains a structural problem.

“The reopening of Hormuz would collapse the oil risk premium, which would bring forward expectations for rate cuts, shifting the entire risk curve from equities to crypto,” Lim said. “Oil first falls, then rates reprice, and then risk assets rise.”

However, he warned that a lull without meaningful normalization in the Strait “will produce an uptick in headlines that will likely dissipate within days.” The market has seen this pattern three times since late March. “Until that number changes substantially, meetings will continue to be sold on rhetoric,” Lim said.

Users in the prediction market Myriadowned by Decode parent company Dastan, reflect the ongoing uncertainty. They show growing optimism about a A ceasefire between the US and Iranwith the chance of an incident in the first half of the year increasing by more than 10% on that day, although it still remains globally negative at 45%. The market more than fifteen ships will pass through the Strait of Hormuz before May also became significantly more optimistic that day, rising from almost 7% to 60%.

Numerous users now point one 46% chance that Bitcoin’s next move will be a rally to $84,000, while crude oil is expected to see a rise 83% probability and then pump to $120.

Both analysts who spoke Declutter noted that a potential $80,000 retest is possible but highly dependent on successful talks and a confirmed ceasefire. However, a failure could send Bitcoin plummeting to $60,000.