In short
- US spot Bitcoin ETF inflows totaling $3.8 billion pushed total net assets to a record $108.76 billion.
- The 25-delta skew is compressing to near zero as traders unwind the downside protection they built during the bear phase.
- Bitcoin’s upside is capped at $85,200, which Glassnode analysts say is the next major resistance.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded five consecutive weeks of positive inflows, while downside hedges in derivatives markets are disappearing, signaling a broader return of institutional demand.
Net inflows for the current week ending May 6 were $1.05 billion, bringing the cumulative total for the five-week period to about $3.8 billion, according to SoSoValue facts. The total net assets of US spot ETFs now stand at $108.76 billion – a record.
Bitcoin is down 1.3% and is trading around $81,100, according to CoinGecko data. The leading crypto has returned gains to the market after news of the Iran peace deal pushed it to a local high of $82,500 on Wednesday.
The institutional appetite is returning
Institutions are returning for three apparent reasons: the expected resolution of hostilities between the US and Iran, an AI-powered stock rally and expected cryptocurrency legislation in Washington, according to BTSE COO Jeff Mei.
“Of these three, the upcoming passage of the CLARITY Act will most likely spur institutional purchases as it reduces regulatory hurdles and paves the way for much broader cryptocurrency adoption,” Mei shared. Declutter.
The inflow coincides with a structural shift in the positioning of derivatives and options.
The 25-delta skew — a measure of the premium traders pay for buying puts or bearish bets for downside protection — is shrinking toward neutral across the tenors, with the one-week skew approaching zero, according to Glassnode’s Thursday. report.
After months of persistent put premiums, protection is being reduced rather than added, indicating that cautious behavior is waning.
Bitcoin has also reclaimed two key on-chain thresholds: the True Market Mean of $78,200 and the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis of $79,100, offsetting the average purchase price of all actively traded offerings in one leg higher, according to Glassnode analysts.
The next major supply zone is near the Active Realized Price at $85,200.
ETF inflows have structural weight, even when institutional hedging activity is taken into account. Andri Fauzan Adziima, research leader at Bitrue Research Institute, said Declutter that while some institutions are hedging ETF exposure with short perpetuals to execute delta-neutral strategies, the net effect remains real demand in the spot market that reduces available supply – a sign of market maturity rather than a dilution of the bullish signal, he added.
Looking ahead
Bitcoin continues to outperform traditional assets and serve as a hedge despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. Users in the prediction market Myriadowned by Decode parent company Dastan, reflect this optimism through a 86% chance that Bitcoin’s next move could push the price to $84,000 instead of $55,000.
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