Arthur Hayes: Crypto Market Will Peak ‘In Mid to Late March’

Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes now believes that crypto markets will peak in mid-March, and then undergo a “severe” correction.

His latest essay begins by talking about how skiing conditions in Japan are being endangered by a type of bamboo known as ‘sasa’.

Hayes explains that heavy snowfall in Hokkaido allowed resorts to open prematurely – and drawing parallels with crypto, he states that a correction he predicted also came earlier than expected.

Last month, the entrepreneur warned that there would be a painful sell-off if Donald Trump came to power, with investors coming to the brutal realization that the president cannot deliver on all his pro-crypto promises.

But he now believes this so-called “Trump dump” has already happened, from mid-December through the end of the year.

On Substack, Hayes writes that the dollar’s increasing liquidity in the first three months of 2025 has the potential to offset disappointment in White House policy and create “positive momentum” for crypto.

“The sasa of a disappointment by Team Trump over his proposed pro-crypto and pro-business legislation could be offset by an extremely positive dollar liquidity environment, up to $612 billion in the first quarter,” he adds.

And as for putting this into practice as a crypto trader, Hayes says late March will be the time to sell “and relax on the beach.”

Explaining his strategy as Maelstrom’s Chief Investment Officer, Hayes says he will now “encourage the risk takers at the fund to set the risk dial to DEGEN” and tap into “shitcoins” from decentralized science (DeSci).

Hayes further admitted that his latest essay marks a sea change in how Trump will impact the crypto markets — and while he says he may be a “poor forecaster of the future,” at least he’s taking in new information and changing his opinion. before opportunities are missed.

“Imagine making a hole-in-one every time you hit a golf ball, sinking every three-point shot in basketball or during the break, and always putting every ball in the pot while playing billiards. Life would be excruciatingly boring are,” he writes.

This is not the first time that Hayes has admitted that his predictions are not very accurate (25% in twelve months, in one go). failure.”

Edited by Stacy Elliott.