Are Solana ETF Approvals ‘In the Bag’? Experts Weigh In

Despite favorable opportunities for approval, the debut of listed funds based on the price of Solana In the US is far from certain hanging regulatory assessment, continuous enforcement actions and public comments on the multiple archives.

A lot can change for Solana hopeful before they may start acting.

“At the moment is the only thing that happened is that they didn’t get a phone call to tell them to leave,” said Bloomberg Senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas Decrypt.

The SEC started to weigh applications for Spot Solana ETFs this week. In this case, the deadline – against which the desk is called up in the approval of other crypto funds – can already be extended on October 16.

The Solana ETFs would further increase access to digital asset-oriented products after the dramatic success of the place Bitcoin And Ethereum ETFs since their respective approvals last year. These funds enabled traditional financial institutions to invest Billions of dollars In the top two cryptocurrencies and sent crypto markets up.

Under major asset managers, Grayscale, Bitwise, Canary, 21Shares and Vaneck have all submitted requests for Spot Solana ETFs with the SEC.

Balchunas has bought in A 70% chance that Solana ETFs will be approved this year. But when it comes to green light, Balchunas said that the timing remains a mystery.

Although the SEC has adopted a crypto-friendly attitude among President Donald Trump, Balchunas said it is unclear how the process can unfold. Under former SEC chairman Gary Gensler, the agency postponed his decision about Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs until the last minute.

“It would certainly be a refreshing signal if they didn’t kick three times,” he said, referring to the earlier delays of the sec. “There is a better chance that it will take less time than under Genler.”

Balchunas said that signals can come from a few places in the coming weeks and months, and there are specific things that ETF watchers are investigating.

Lawsuits, statements and feedback

If the SEC starts to give feedback on the proposed rule changes of asset managers described in 19B-4 inventions or registration statements, then Balchunas said that that would be a “huge” sign of Momentum for Spot Solana ETFs. It would show that the SEC is equipment with asset managers.

Any indication that asset managers have also met the SEC to answer questions about Solana ETFs would be specifically ‘important’, he said.

Another area to check for developments will be enforcement actions that have been initiated under the leadership of Gensler. In the 2023 trial against Coinbase, for example, for example, the regulator so -called That Solana was one of different securities trade on the Coinbase platform.

The SEC lawsuit was postponed last month after a federal judge in New York promised Coinbase’s so -called motion for discussion partner. In the midst of conflicting statements about how securities laws apply to crypto, the move gave the green light for a higher court to weigh.

If the sec withdraws from his legal fight with Coinbase, or drops the Solana claims, that would be another good sign that requests will receive approval momentum, Balchunas said.

Finally, Trump’s nominated Paul Atkins could become a factor for SEC chairman. Although Atkins has not yet been confirmed by the Senate, if he says that something that has been interpreted as relevant to crypto-oriented ETF approvals, Balchunas said that it would be another positive signal.

‘In the bag’

With Trump’s crypto-friendly regime, some analysts wonder whether the conditions under which Solana ETFs could be approved have already been satisfied.

“I don’t want to say that it is in the bag, but the change of the SEC is really something,” said Bitwise Senior Investment strategist Juan Leon Decrypt. “It really has been an 180.”

For years, the SEC Fraud emphasized and ensure market manipulation when refusing applications for spot Bitcoin ETFs. However, Grayscale’s Legal Triumph In 2023 it led to the approval of Spot Bitcoin ETFs months later.

In a Washington, DC, Appellate Court, a panel of judges found that the denial of the SEC of Grayscale’s offer to convert his flagship fund into a place ETF was ‘random and fickle’.

The SEC had already approved Bitcoin Futures ETFs and the jury members discovered that the presence of a Regulated Futures -markt Should be sufficient to tackle the worries of fraud and market manipulation of the agency.

Earlier this week, the derivatives of Coinbase debuted Futures contracts for Solana, which are regulated by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Leon said that the sec could drop the presence of regulated futures markets as a consideration or requirement for Solana ETFs, but the Coinbase movement probably had the same effect.

“I think this movement really increases the chance of a Solana ETF by Coinbase,” he said. “Now there is a regulated market that they can look at.”

Published by James Rubin