As crypto majors, including bitcoin (BTC), await the U.S. CPI data, smaller coins like PUMP, AVAX and MNT have advanced 8%-11% in the past 24 hours. The biggest gainer among the top 100 tokens is Provenance Blockchain’s HASH token, which has surged 28%.
On Tuesday, the Provenance Blockchain Foundation announced a model that will help maintain network balance by adjusting inflation rates dynamically based on ongoing conditions.
This approach protects stakers by preventing dilution of their holdings, ensuring their investments retain value over time. It also offers extra rewards that create a genuine alignment of incentives between users and the blockchain, fostering long-term commitment and healthy network growth, the foundation explained on X.
Market gains may accelerate if the CPI prints below estimates, strengthening the chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut.
“If CPI data is dovish and pushes BTC above this level, it could trigger a short squeeze and accelerate a move into the 115,000+ liquidity zone,” analysts at Bitunix said in an email.
“Conversely, if stronger-than-expected inflation drives [the] U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) higher and delays rate-cut expectations, 111,000 will be the first key support, with a potential retest of the 108,500–109,000 liquidity zone if it breaks.”
Derivatives Positioning
By Omkar Godbole
- Open interest (OI) in BTC futures and perpetual futures listed worldwide remains elevated at 736K BTC, just short of last month’s record high 748K BTC.
- In the past 24 hours the tally has remained relatively unchanged, alongside tentative trading in futures tied to altcoins, as traders adopted a cautious stance before today’s critical U.S. CPI report.
- Volmex’s one-day BTC implied volatility index continues to fluctuate within a months long range of 25% to 50%, indicating that the market is not anticipating significant volatility from the CPI announcement. The index recently stood at 35.50%, suggesting an expected one-day price movement of about 1.85%.
- Volatility indices linked to ETH, SOL and XRP also remain locked in recent ranges.
- On the CME, OI in bitcoin futures remains depressed at multimonth lows, while OI in ether continues to recede from recent record highs.
- Options, however, show the opposite trend. BTC options OI has increased to over 50,000 BTC, the most since April. And ether options OI has jumped to 260K ETH, the highest since August 2024.
- On Deribit, 25-delta risk reversals continue to exhibit a bias toward put options in bitcoin and ether. Flows on OTC desk Paradigm continued to lean bearish, with some traders picking up the September expiry $4,000 ETH put.
Token Talk
By Oliver Knight
- Mantle (MNT) led a wider altcoin jump on Thursday, rising to a record high of $1.62 on the back of significant volume on derivatives exchange Bybit.
- The native token of its namesake’s layer-2 network is primarily a governance token, but is also widely staked as investors look to secure a yield on their holdings.
- The annualized return of staking MNT on Coinbase stands at 71%, far more than the 1.86% return holders get for staking ether (ETH) on the same platform.
- This has led to more than two thirds of MNT’s total supply being staked, resulting in a lack of supply on exchanges amid a wave of demand.
- Trading volume on Bybit hit $195 million over the past 24 hours, an 83% rise on the previous 24 hours.
- Open interest is also up 20%, outpacing the 15% gain in price, which can be attributed to traders opening new leveraged positions to bet on further upside.
- The new record high price could pave the way for other altcoins to rally too.
- The “altcoin season” index rose to 67/100 on Thursday, demonstrating trader preference to trade more speculative and lower liquidity assets like MNT as opposed to crypto majors BTC and ETH.