Apple Overtakes Nvidia—Which Will Be Bigger by End of July?

Apple is once again the most valuable company in the world. Will this remain this way until the end of July?

On Polymarkt– a prediction market where contract prices behave like crowd-generated probabilities – Apple’s odds of ending July in first place rose more than 50% to about 79% in about a day.

Nvidia, now the second most valuable company in the world, fell to about 22%, and the market has attracted a total of about $4.7 million in trading volume.

As of late Tuesday, Apple was valued at about $4.995 trillion, compared to Nvidia’s $4.768 trillion. That gives the iPhone maker a lead of about $227 billion.

That’s a lot of money. It’s also small enough to disappear in one ugly trading session.

Apple has been mocked for coming too late to artificial intelligence over the past two years. Suddenly, not writing blank checks for giant GPU farms looks less like incompetence and more like risk management.

Investors are getting nervous about AI investments, or capex – the money companies spend on long-lived assets like chips, servers and data centers. Reuters estimates that five major cloud companies could spend more on capital expenditures than they generate in free cash flow by 2027.

Nvidia is central to that spending cycle. Shares fell as investors questioned reports that the chipmaker could provide a financial safety net of about $250 billion for an OpenAI data center project, adding to concerns that AI companies are increasingly funding their own customers.

Apple isn’t abandoning AI entirely. The company unveiled a rebuilt Siri in early June with conversational features and personal context awareness, while partially relying on third-party models and its own smaller on-device systems.

That strategy was previously seen as evidence that Apple had lost the AI ​​race. This week it seems cheaper.

Nvidia is hardly dead. Data center revenue rose 75% to $62.3 billion in the last reported quarter, proving that demand for AI infrastructure remains huge.

Apple will announce its fiscal third quarter results on July 30 at 5:00 PM Eastern Time. Polymarket’s contract will be settled based on which company has the largest market capitalization at the market close on July 31.