Bitcoin ‘Resilient’ After Hawkish Fed, But No ‘Return of Demand’: Analysts

Bitcoin The market is turning sideways, and the analysts watching it largely agree on the problem: The sellers are running out, but the buyers haven’t returned.

The leading cryptocurrency changed hands around $64,700 on Monday, up 0.8% on the day but down about 13% in the past month and nearly 50% below October’s record high of $126,080, according to CoinGecko data.

Crypto proved “more resilient than expected” in light of aggressive debut of new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, CoinShares head of research James Butterfill said On Friday, Bitcoin fell a lower-than-expected 1.6% versus the S&P 500’s 1.2% and the Nasdaq’s 1.3%. The analyst admitted that the price action is “not strong price action in absolute terms,” ​​but that it is “firmer than many expected” in light of an aggressive Fed reset and a step back from policy signaling.

“Higher real interest rate expectations are still a headwind for liquidity-sensitive assets, so the market’s initial aggressive interpretation made sense,” Butterfill noted, but pointed to a “more nuanced” broader setup, with persistent inflation, policy uncertainty and a more responsive Fed building on Bitcoin’s longer-term monetary situation. “In other words, the short-term macro impulse is limiting, but the structural case for Bitcoin as an alternative monetary asset does not disappear,” he added.

Bitcoin’s muted reaction to Warsh’s debut was telling, says Tim Sun, senior researcher at HashKey. The small decline reflects selling pressure that is “nearly exhausted, rather than a return of demand,” he said, while the market is still rebuilding its view of the Fed as Warsh moves away from forward guidance. For a rally to become a trend, Sun argued, two things must align: a return of risk appetite and “cooperation with long-term interest rates.” He sees Bitcoin returning to a framework for trading macro-liquidity assets, with ETF flows, oil prices and long-term government bonds being the variables to watch.

The price action looks less like a trend than a stalemate, said Dean Chen, an analyst at Bitunix. ETF flows continue to point to distribution, he noted, with U.S. funds down around $90.7 million on June 18 and around $4 billion last month. The weekly pace has since cooled to a few hundred million per SoSoValue databut Bitcoin has refused to collapse, instead narrowing a range as the derivatives market deleveraged.

Chen highlighted a liquidation map that was trending downward, with about $1.3 billion in long liquidations clustered around $61,900, against roughly $870 million in short liquidations around $64,800, and said the inability to fall into that zone indicates “a stabilizing force absorbing volatility.” Now that “smart money” is positioned neutrally, he says, Bitcoin is in a “range-driven redistribution phase.”

The catalysts could still be weeks away, said Stephen Wundke, strategy and revenue director at Algoz Technologies. He pointed to a U.S. vote on the Clarity Act on July 4, in which he warned that a miss could push the market structure bill into the fourth quarter, and to U.S. inflation, which is expected to cool for only two to three months after the truce with Iran is implemented. By his count, demand for ETFs has risen from over $20 billion in inflows in 2025 to $3.2 billion in outflows in 2026, with Bitcoin down about 26% this year and a basket of major tokens down almost 50%. “This may be a bottom,” Wundke said, “but we may bounce off it for a while.”

Under the prize, some holders dig in instead of heading for the exit. Over the past 90 days, Bitcoin has been the top exchange destination on Chainflip, with $239 million in volume, and holders are increasingly borrowing against their coins rather than selling them, said Peter Smedas, the protocol’s marketing lead. The recurring theme among Bitcoin holders at the recent BTC conference in Prague, he said, was that “they want liquidity against their BTC, not an exit.”

A near-term test is in store on Friday, when Wundke marked an expiration date on Bitcoin options worth $10.9 billion, which could spook a market still searching for direction. In the prediction market Myriadowned by DeclutterParent company Dastan, traders have turned bearish on Bitcoin’s prospects, raising the possibility of a drop to $55,000 at 70%, an increase of 5% from the week before.