Bitcoin Resistance at $78K and $83K Could Cap Rally: Schwab

Bitcoin’s rally to $78,000 hit resistance last week, with Schwab’s digital asset strategist pointing to two base investor cost levels that could keep prices in a range — even as ETF inflows and ceasefire optimism provide underlying support.

According to CoinGecko data, the leading crypto is currently trading around $76,800, down from last week’s high of $77,900. It is up 2.3% in the past 24 hours, supported by $1.4 billion in inflows into crypto funds last week – the strongest weekly total since January.

The cost basis for active investors, a measure of the average price paid Bitcoin acquired through secondary markets is at about $78,000, the level at which last week’s rally stalled, according to Jim Ferraioli, director of Digital Currencies Research and Strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research.

Above that, about $83,000 is the average cost basis for all spot Bitcoin ETPs, a level at which new crypto investors may be tempted to sell to recoup losses. The 200-day simple moving average near $87,000 represents the long-term price trend and is just above the $83,000 level.

“Both measurements suggest that the average Bitcoin investor is currently losing money,” Ferraioli said Declutter. “These levels could serve as much stronger areas of resistance as moving averages.”

According to Reya co-founder and CEO Simon Jones, institutional demand could absorb selling pressure at those levels.

“The 83,000 figure for spot ETP buyers is the most interesting level to look at,” he said Declutter. “These are largely institutional investors who came in through regulated products, patient capital coming in for structural reasons rather than a quick transaction. Given the continued inflows we’ve seen, there’s a reasonable suspicion that the new demand will absorb any profit-taking at that level.”

Important market dynamics

On the plus side, crypto funds have seen three consecutive weeks of positive flows, with US-led inflows dominating last week with $1.5 billion, according to Coin shares. Morgan Stanley launched its spot Bitcoin ETF this month, while Goldman Sachs filed for its own Bitcoin income ETF shortly after, broadening institutional access and improving the leading crypto’s fundamental prospects.

That institutional demand is the most reliable catalyst, says Andri Fauzan Adziima, research leader at Bitrue Declutter. “We’ve seen several strong inflow days in April, including a notable one-day increase of $664 million on April 17 led by BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC. This steady absorption of supply sets the current cycle apart from previous retail-driven manias.”

However, the headwind continues. April tax season could prompt a portfolio rebalancing, capping the upside for risky assets in general, amid the US-Iran ceasefire remains vulnerable.

Users in the prediction market Myriadowned by Decode parent company Dastan, have a 62% chance oil subsequently reaches $120 per barrel, underscoring ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. However, they remain optimistic in the medium term and propose a 74% chance about US President Donald Trump announcing the end of military operations against Iran before June.

While a retest of the 50-day SMA would not be surprising, Ferraioli said the market is still waiting for the CLARITY Act to be passed as a “major catalyst to reset momentum” in the crypto market.

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025, often referred to as the CLARITY Act, has stalled in the U.S. Senate Banking Committee, with planned markups postponed amid intense disputes over stablecoin yield provisions.

Until then, these resistance levels could keep prices relatively contained in the short term. However, private investors remain optimistic and point out a 60% chance that Bitcoin remains above $76,000 as of 4:00 PM UTC on April 22 – up from 33.5% just two days earlier – suggesting sentiment could change quickly if key levels hold.